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Old 09-20-2004, 12:14 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: Boat Odds When flop Trips

[ QUOTE ]
OK I am confussed...Reading "Playing Low Limit Hold'em" by Bob Turgeon and his chart on page 26 says the odds of two pair improving to a full house are 12-1 8.51%. Given the odds of 33.4% listed above for a set to improve to a full house on by the river card, are there different odds for improving a set to a full house than two pair?

I thought the odds would be the same for both but I must have this wrong....

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8.51% is just the probability for 2-pair to improve to a full house on the turn only (4/47 for the 4 outs). This is indeed different for trips since then we have 6 outs, and 6/47 = 12.8% or 6.8-1. The probability of 2-pair improving to a full house on the turn or river is 4/47 + (43/47)*(7/46) = 22.4% or 3.5-1. That is, we have 4 outs on the turn, and if we miss on the turn we pick up 3 more outs on the river. This is indeed not as good as the 33.4% probability of trips improving to a full house or quads by the river. In that case we have 7 outs on the turn, and if we miss we pick up 3 more on the river. Of course the quads aren't much good unless you have the winning kicker since everyone has them. The probability of improving to a full house only is 6/47 + (41/47)*(9/47) = 29.8% or 2.4-1.
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