Re: Almost FT, A7o
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you shouldn't be taking a 45% chance of eleventh place money and a 55% of doubling your equity to something like fourth to sixth.
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This is a very unconvincing argument, since it completely ignores the huge jump in prize money that comes if you manange to put yourself in a better position to take one of the 3 first places (~$8.5K, ~5.5K, ~3.5K). I'm not playing for 1st because that's how you "supposed" to play, I'm playing for 1st because that's where the money is, very very simple. When I see a clear enough opportunity to get myself up the ladder in a reasonable +EV spot, I'm doing it. This is just one example out of many others. Surely, sometimes it will work, sometime it wouldn't, but I should feel I'm really risking too much in order to simply pass on something (it will happen much more often in later stages, obviously).
If you think that by doubling up here you gain nothing but a chance to win 4th, 5th or 6th on an equal distribution, then you should probably fold everything in this spot. I see why you think calling with AT is close.
Doubling up here on a clear +CEV spot can give me a very significant leverage for gaining more advantage towards the final stages of this game. My stealing potential will increase dramatically, and the fact that they saw me call all-in with A7o is very helpul for my image, as a weapon against steals. You are ignoring too many factors in your analysis of this situation.
Again, I have no problem with discussing how close is calling with A7o in this spot. However, it is very far from being an obvious fold, like you have stated before, and apparatnly still think so.
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