Re: River aggression
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I bet on the river to push off mid- and underpairs. I was representing an overpair.
Once he raised I was ~50% sure he had nothing/very little (my meager read over him tells he usually bets his good hands prior to the river).
I have 50k hands of my own +data mining in ptracker, 5k hands of him is not that big.
By the way, just checked ptracker, I am winning our matchup with that villain.
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You have four sentences, and I have four objections. That's a bad sign that you are all over the place in your reasoning.
If mid-pair/underpair called the flop and the turn, why do you think he's going to fold on the river?
How are you ~50% sure he had nothing/very little? Why ~50%? You called him a "fit-or-fold" player in another post. How do those things align to give you something worth playing?
5000 hands is plenty to have a sense of his stats, but it doesn't give you everything you need to know about him. You should get some real reads and not just stats.
And "winning [your] matchup" is absolutely uninteresting and uninformative.
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