Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
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but does justin always bet an A high hand on this turn? rather, does he have AND bet/fold A high here often enough for a c/r to be profitable (ie, 28% of the time)?
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He doesn't always have A high, but if he checks it he is giving a free card when we're a ~2:1 dog and if he bets it, I think he's folding often enough for the check-raise to be profitable.
I don't know where you got the 28% figure--the check-raise doesn't have to be successful nearly that often. Quick calculation says 13%.
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