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Old 09-10-2004, 08:47 PM
aces961 aces961 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Urbana, IL
Posts: 69
Default Re: Related question

[ QUOTE ]
Today I had the chance to triple up. I had 10's and I knew one opponent could have anything, he was a maniac. And I figured the other had two over cards. We all called all in (i had short stack). Crazy man flipped over A-7 offsuit, other guy flipped A-Q of diamonds. So, I'd like to first of all know what my chances were going into the flop of winning this hand.

Second, if we assume I am a good player (this is wholly debatable), and I have a 60 % shot at doubling before going broke, what would be the correct percentage to seek in order to try and triple up? A 55%, 75%? Basically, I'm asking if my move made sense, considering the fact that I had 60 % to double anyway. Would a player who doubles up 80% of the time before going broke make the same move?
Thanks in advance

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You win the hand 53 percent of the time. (could vary by a slight amount due to exact suits that your tens and the a7 were)

When we say that a good player has a 60 percent to double up before going broke this is a generalization included in his play. Therefore the all these situations you can bring up are part of what gives him that 60 percent chance. You shouldn't change how you play for the reason of trying to get to that 60 percent, but you should change plays you make because they aren't the correct plays.

Now going all in here is with the short stack is a very good play and somewhat obvious against the maniac.

Now if a good player has a 60 percent chance of doubling up. He is going to have a .6^1.5 chance of tripling up this comes out to about 46.5 percent of the time.
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