[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
If you put him on X, Y, or Z and he turns out to have W then this isn't short-term noise that can be disregarded, your read was a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with that.

What I meant was that even if MP1 had turned over KJ, apparently vindicating my read, that doesn't mean my read was correct in the sense of correctly estimating the probability of each hand in the range I could put him on.

For example, if I believed that KJ was 70% likely when in fact it was only 45% likely, the fact that he actually had KJ this time doesn't really vindicate my read since I got the probability wrong.

But you're right that if I only considered AK, KQ, KJ, Kx and 66 as possibilities, while he actually held QT, then I know based on the results that my read was a mistake.