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Old 09-01-2004, 02:04 PM
dfscott dfscott is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 57
Default Re: I\'d rather have a losing session than this? (probably not)

Thanks for all the advice -- I appreciate the help and encouragement. I stumbled upon another thread in the SS forum, and I'm glad that at least I'm not in that bad a shape. I feel sorry for the guy, but it made me feel a lot better about my situation.

I do have poker tracker, and I use it religiously. I'm a stats junkie, so not only do I use PT, but I also keep a ledger-style spreadsheet of my bankroll, progress and win rate. One thing that has been key for me is my win rate as well as the standard error that's associated with it (I can't remember who posted the formula for it, but I owe them a big thanks.)

Given those stats, I can say with 99% certainty that my current win rate is somewhere between 1.1BB/100 and 8.5BB/100. A big spread to be sure, but at least both numbers are positive. I have a 95% chance that it lies between 2.4BB/100 and 7.3BB/100. Of course, this figures in some lower limits and goes back over several months -- I might have picked up some bad habits. The bad thing about statistics like this is that since you're always learning, changing, and moving around in limits, by the time you've got enough data to be statistically significant, it's started to get obsolete.

As far as notes, I'm using a modified version bison's auto-rate plan and it seems to be working quite well, although you really have to take the ratings with a grain of salt when you haven't seen many hands (I'm sure that lately, I'd look like a rock.)

The good news is that I'm already out of the shell-shocked phase and back to just somewhat disappointed and approaching "defiantly determined." I'll drop back in limits again tonight and give the tables another shot.

Thanks again for the feedback.
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