Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
Lets just put AA and QQ as 10% shots and say it never gets raised behind you.
Over 230 hands.
220 times you lose 1SB. -220bb
9 times you win. 21SB + 6SB in implied. +243SB
1 time you lose 1SB + 6SB in implied. -7bb.
net, +0.072BB per hand.
Say 20% of the time he has it. -220b + 216 - 14 = -0.078 per hand.
So 15% looks the breakeven number. This is without the button being allowed to raise once he raises your pot odds and implied odds get cut in half.
Levellers - Just The One
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