Re: Odds of set over set occuring?
Not including the times that one of you hits four of a kind, the odds that your opponent makes a set by the river given that you made a set on the flop and your opponent has a pocket pair = 2 * C(44,3) / C(47,4) =~ 14.9%
As far as adjusting the odds heads-up for hitting a set with a low pocket pair, I think you're just wasting your time. First you can never be 100% sure that your opponent has a pair. And second, if you have a low pp and you think your opponent has a higher pair you shouldn't even play the hand, as you are about a 4:1 dog.
aloiz
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