[riverflush]

It's a really mixed bag right now. The polls seem to favor Kerry in some key swing states, but Bush has stronger numbers in the "likely voters" category (registered vs. likely is a distinction).

I think Bush will win Florida...if 2002's election is any indicator, the Dem's have actually lost ground in that state. All the polls had Jeb ahead by a mere 2 or 3 points, and he won by a landslide 56-43 margin...and this was even after the 2000 election fiasco . The polls seem to be useless in that state. I think it's trending Bush.

What should really concern Kerry is:

1) Zero bump out of the convention, which is really unprecidented. Either voters have already made up their mind, or this covention was a massive dud.

2) Minimal bump for Edwards pick. This is also disturbing for Kerry, as it shows that (despite massive media hype) Edwards won't have much effect on the election at all. Contrast that to Cheney's negative public image, and you have a major lost opportunity.

3) Swift Boat/Cambodia lasting 20 days+ as a media story. Instead of getting out in front of this thing, Kerry sat back for nearly 3 weeks and didn't respond to the attack. Now, it's festered around and grown into a monster - and all Kerry can do is send threatening letters and lawsuit complaints? He should have jumped on it hard 3 weeks ago and called these guys out immediately. Make a big appearance where he thrashes these guys in a speech...and plays up his love for the country and service, etc. etc. He should have done that August 1, not August 24th.

With no bump from the convention, this Vietnam controversy can take away his 3% or 4% advantage in a heartbeat.