He is almost certainly NOT onto something. Going 45 out of 50 when you are a 2-1 favorite is a lot more than one standard deviation. In fact it is more than three. However firstly he is a lot more than a 2-1 favorite to have a winning trade because of his technique (but he is laying big money odds) and secondly you run into the bias that we only hear about the lucky ones on this forum. I will let others elaborate.