[cferejohn]

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There are some pros that i believe to play well. Some are just lucky one time blunders. Have you seen things like four people all in preflop early in the tournament maybe the first hand. Everyone has pocket pairs from AA to 44. The 44 wins. He wasn't the first one to push all in. He was the very last. I've seen it happen. So how do you win against luck like that? early on he now has 4x the lead. Also it's the bubble close to the final table. You see someone making a move all in or raising pretty much making a power play. Another guy pushes him all in with KK because he knows this. The guy who was making a move has 3 6. Basically he raised half his stack preflop to steal the blinds. Now he has the option to fold, but he calls the all in. The flop gives 3 6 two pairs. He wins the pot. Now the KK had him covered. He wins the pot and gives the lame excuse i had to do it i was pot commited. How lucky is he? Weak players can make bad moves and make so many chips with bad beats that they can afford a couple of beats. I find myself short stacked in most of my tourneys sometimes i feel like pushing it with weaker cards. It's not my ability read what others may have, but i can never seem to get lucky enough.

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The "lucky" players will be losers in the long run if they keep making those plays. The unlucky ones will be winners if they keep getting their money in with way the best of it. Just don't expect it to balance out in one tournament. Or one month. Or one year...

Example: I won $4400 by placing 7th in the Party Super Monday this week. When I tell non-poker playing friends about this, they say things like "wow, $4400 for one nights work." Well, that's really not true. I've probably played those "super" tournaments on party a dozen times in the past couple months. I've sqeeked in to the money once before, not even doubling my buy-in, but they were all filled with their share of bad-luck, bad beats, etc. If you are making the right plays, you will win eventually. And in tournaments, when you win, you win big. This is countered by the fact that the *vast* majority of the time, the best tournament player in the world will not even make the money in an event where ~10% of the field is paid.

Poker is about taking small-to-medium edges over and over again to make money. You need to have sufficient bankroll and patience to take advantage of this. Let's say you had $5000. I have a 20-sided die (or better yet, *you* have a 20-sided die you big nerd) and I say that we'll bet $1 and I'll roll the die. If it's a 1-9, I win, if it's a 10-20 you win. We'll make this bet until you are tired of making it. Would you take it? Of course you would. If it came up 1-9 8 or 9 times in a row, would you bemoan that its impossible to win? Of course not, you'd keep doing it until I ran out of money.

If the bet was say, $2000 with your $5000 bankroll, you'd have a very good chance of losing all your money of course. If you did, would you say that the game was impossible to beat? Of course not, and you'd take it again in a second if you had the money to spare. Well, in a tournament you have, defacto, a limited bankroll. You're making bets with the biggest edges you can manufacture, but in poker, those edges are not *nearly* large enough to prevent the risk of ruin from being very large, plus the fact that in a field of 200 (or 1000, or whatever), while you may be better than the field, there could easily be players out there who have a small edge against you.

A lot of rambling to say be patient, keep getting your money in with the best of it, and turn around and place your hands on the hood of the car while the BAD BEAT POLICE frisk you.