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Old 08-13-2004, 12:53 PM
SossMan SossMan is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 559
Default Re: Satellite Bubble Strategy Question

I think this is pretty mathmatical.

You can assume that they will only be calling with a narrow range of hands.
AA-QQ, AK, maybe JJ/TT and AQ.

For the sake of argument, let's say one of them will call w/ JJ,TT and AQ, and the other will fold eveythink but AA-QQ, AK.

How often will one of them pick up a hand to call you?

Let's say the SB is the tighter player (makes some sense, since he still has a player behind him left to act)

AA - 1/220 = .0046
KK - 1/440 = .0023
QQ - 1/220 = .0046
AK - 1/110 = .0092

So, chances that he gets one of these hands is just over 2% of the time.

Let's see about the BB:
All the above hands plus: JJ,TT, AQ

JJ - 1/220 = .0046
TT - 1/110 = .0023
AQ - 1/82 = .0123

so, 2% plus another 1.9% or so...call it 4%.

So, the odds that neither have a callable hand are about
98%*96% = 94% of the time...or, you are called roughly 6% of the time.

Out of those, you are probably an average of 2.5:1 against when called, so out of the 6%, you get lucky another 30%ish.
So, 94% of the time you win blinds+antes.
4% of the time, you bubble
2% of the time you double up and can coast.

I like the push.

P.S. These numbers are a rough estimate, I know I am leaving out nominal stuff like bunching, chances that the BB overcalls, etc... Also, they may be much looser than these assumptions, so you would have to adjust the data. Obviously, the looser they are, the worse the push is for you.
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