[topspin]

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In TOP, Sklansky says to add up the total amount you expect to win and lose in future streets to determine whether to call or not (effective odds). Those are the numbers that you should use in comparison with pot odds. So let's just pretend that on the flop it's 4.5:1 to make your gutshot on the river and there's $65 in the pot and someone bet $10 (pot=$75). If you miss on the turn and they bet again you're getting $95: $20 ($20 because the betting doubles) Add in another $20 you expect to make for the river bet if the hand is good and you're getting $115:$20. You should call.

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For the record, you're actually a little worse than a 1:5 dog to catch your gutshot by the river, although obviously that wasn't the point of your post.

There seem to be a few glitches in your calculations. The effective odds in your example are actually 3:9.5, or about 1:3.2 -- you invest $30 to see the river ($10 on the flop, plus another $20 on the turn) for a chance to win $95 (the $75 on the table on the flop, plus another $20 your opponent bets on the turn). Since your effective odds are worse than the odds of making your hand, you should fold.

Note that using effective odds implies that you're planning to call all the way down regardless of what happens on intermediate streets. In general, you can do better by using a dynamic strategy that gives yourself the option of folding (possibly this is what you were intuitively feeling); in this case, you'd be calculating implied odds instead of effective odds. (Keep going onto the next chapter of ToP. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])