Re: NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?
you think he's going to chop!? I think there's a great chance his hand will be good if he hits his 6 outer. also his hand is well disguised which makes his chances of getting paid off even better.
he really only needs better than 6.5 to 1 to make the call profitable, and he's currently getting a little worse than 4 to 1 closing the action. he needs to make 1350 on the river to break even on his call, and I would say with two players that's very likely.
I think this is a situation where you have to judge how committed both players are to their hands on the turn. I have a hard time putting the guy in between on a flush draw, usually people won't just call all their chips getting bad odds with a flush draw. depends on the player.
the only situation you hate on the river is if a heart comes and makes you a straight and it goes check, bet and now you have to make the read. if it goes bet and raise you can obviously fold it.
--turnipmonster
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