Re: Dumb river bet or not? Preflop play?
god dammit there's no such thing as a "worser" hand... there's no such thing as a "worser" anything... it doesn't even SOUND like reasonable grammar... GAH!
but that said... this is a marginal play...
in many limits and situations such as higher limits or with decent table reads this river bet has +ev... you're betting that 1-5 times you're betting at a busted draw... and that the busted draw doesn't contain say, top pair or second pair or pocket pairs... but it seems totally situationally dependent as to when this is +ev...
but there's one other important factor which you discussed which makes your odds better than 1-5... how many times if you check down on the river do you lose in a checked-behind showdown, and how many times do you lose if you're bet into and either call or fold?
with his own busted draw leading the betting into a hand showing weakness with no help on the river a bet is the ONLY way to win this hand... and I would submit that you MUST make this bet unless you're up against a known call station or at a micro-limit table with NO read... and maybe not unless both requirements are met (at a microlimit table up against a call station)
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