[Kevin]

I am a little confused.

First of all, sorry about making the personal request. This hand happened two weeks ago and I have been thinking about it ever since. I got his book yesterday, read about hidden outs, partial outs, folding when the pot is big and it hit me to post it. I have been trying hard not to make the "good fold" that costs me a pot and went the other way this time.

I posted this a 6pm yesterday. Now, a lot of you guys were playing, but there were 17 posts that were made after this and 22 that had responses. When I got up early to go to the office this morning about 4 am - 10 hours later, I posted the results - only because I was sure that I wasn't going to get responses and it was on its way to being buried. Alas, as soon as the results were posted, I get blasted - but not one came before the results were there. On the flop, I had (according to what I read in his book - if I understood correctly), 1.5 (partial) outs to the backdoor flush, 1.5 parital) outs to the back door straight, 3 js and 3 aces. that is 9. The 8s was obviously not clean, and maybe the aces and jacks weren't clean, but I continued to read that I should not assume the worst every single time in low limit games. So, discounted, maybe, it is at best 5 -

[ QUOTE ]
you have to be thinking your opponent has hit the set

[/ QUOTE ]

(I was more worried about the blind with a 9 than the flop raiser - wouldn't he normally wait to pop me on 4th with trips or full? Maybe he had an over pair like 10s, maybe he had J10 suited (not spade obviously with the jack) for a nut straight draw back door flush draw (the pot was big so he might be trying to buy outs versus keeping customers in(again, another concept that I am trying fully grasp and understand)). The big blind had 8-1 to close the action so he could have about any 2 suited - with a 9 as a distinct possibility. Of couse the raiser could have also had 88, 98, 99, 4 aces in his hand, but I am trying to balance not fearing the worst with not assuming that he had the only hand that I could beat - and his flop raise (in my weak/feeble fishy - "what are the hands that I can beat" mind) did not tell me that he was full.

On 4th, BB check raises, I pick up the nut flush draw, backdoor straight draw - . He called the two cold on the flop which gave me the feeling that he could be lurking with a 9, but it could be 95 suited, J9 o, Q9o, etc. as much as it could be A9 or 97, 98.

So, the calling two cold right was a fundamental decision that I had to decide if I was drawing dead or not. If I thought that they were both full, it was an easy fold, and the bb check raise told me that he had at least the 9 - was he full?. Again, shame on me for not reading the CO for 88 because I thought that if he had that hand, he would make me pay on 4th versus the flop raise. I fully expected him to slow down. when it is 2 more bets back, I guess I should have assume that both had full houses and folded and there was another miserable mistake

Unless the CO coldcalled preflop with KK or someone had K9, I didn't feel that the river changed anything - except making my miracle backdoor draw. I figured with the cap and the flush on the board, one of the fellows would slow down and if there was a full, I could have seen it for one bet, but it comes down to - if I thought I was drawing to the best hand and made it, then treat it like it is the best hand - otherwise dump it earlier. 2 bets back to me, I am getting 27/2 in the miracle that I am good 7.5% of the time. Oh $%$# 1 more bet back to me now it is 32/1, now I need to be right about 3% of the time (and I don't like my chances on that).

This was exactly why I posted this. If I check folded the flop, it might have been someone taking a stab at a large pot and I might very well have been best - there were exactly 5 cards out there that matched the 8 and 9's as well as potential pocket pairs (and if it is a pocket pair, I have as many potentially clean outs as an OESD). If I didn't pick up the redraw on 4th (I wish I wouldn't have), it would have been an easy check fold situation. Maybe I have it all wrong. I am trying to find the balance between assuming the best and assuming the worst and haven't got there yet.

Thanks for your help and feedback.
Kevin