[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, if he is truly LAG, and the limpers are terrible (and he knows it), then he's probably raising any (suited) paint here...so in addition to your hands, things like KQ or QJ or JT are all highly probable and all hands that he would raise the flop and bet the turn (maybe not KQ on the turn but who knows).

even if you limit yourself to AA-JJ and AJ, there are 18 combinations of hands you beat (6 each of AA QQ AJ) and 4 that you lose to (1 way KK and 3 ways JJ). If we start including things like suited paint and medium pairs, again the combinations of the number of hands you beat (QJ, JT, etc) are much greater than the hands you lose to (1 way 88, 3 ways KJ).

Joe is right, bet the river.


[/ QUOTE ]
Dante,

I agree with all of this except the last part. If you feel Joe is this likely to be ahead (which I think is obvious) and the opponent is truly LAG, then why not check/raise the river? I think there is a very slim chance the opponent either checks it through or folds to the raise.

If Joe played this as aggressively as I normally would then I'd definitely lead the river but given his fairly passive line on this hand I just don't see why check/raising wouldn't be the best play on the river. Now if I felt the opponent was very likely to raise with many hands I beat I could see the argument but I think he would bet and call a raise with many more hands than he would raise with.