Re: The old coin-flip debate
Reading my original post again, I've realized that the point that seemed clear to me, wasn't too clear from the way I've written it. Although the discussion that origniated was exactly what I was looking for.
My point was, that according to the original calculation by AM, calling all-in as a 7:3, with equal stacks on the bubble, is only marginally +$EV. However, I cannot believe this is correct. I'm pretty much positive that calling all-in as such a favorite, is significantly +$EV, and the same probably goes for calling it as a 2:1 favorite.
For my thinking here to be true, we have to assume that by folding in that situation we are not securing an $EV of 25$ (but less), and by calling, we are gaining more than merely the $37.5 * P (while P is our probability of winning the showdown). So basically, I'm arguing against these 2 numbers (25$ and $37.5, for a $10 SNG), and my argument is that calling all-in as, say, 2:1, favorite, is higher +$EV (against certain, but not few, opponents) than was suggested by AM.
Some of the replies here (from Pitcher, and also AM), are in the line of what I'm thinking.
I think this is a very important discussion (and not because I started, or reopened it). It's possible we're talking here about a small but meaningful increase in ROI, although it's difficult to say exactly how much.
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