[Ed Miller]

The main plan is to get heads up and fire again on the turn. You are putting one and a half BB in the pot to win 6 BB (odds 1:4) Odds against hitting in two cards is 1:5

You haven't taken into account your backdoor flush draw. It's important here. I'm not sure I'd make the play without it. Though it is somewhat (but not completely) discounted by the chance one of your opponents holds a flush draw.

You need your turn bluff to win around 5% of the time just to get an EV of zero and maybe it would have to work 10-15% off the time to get even with the EV of just calling.

In this situation, the bluff IS going to work fairly often. The preflop raiser will be caught without a pair quite often (AQ, AJ, AT, A2s, etc.)... or with a dubious pocket pair (88, 99, etc.). In those spots, he is going to let go to your bluff a significant percentage of the time.

Turn the king into a ten, and that's no longer as true, since QQ and JJ are now overpairs, and AQ and AJ now have two overcards.

Furthermore, your opponents tend to play too passively. They aren't going to punish you by just calling on the flop and raising you on the turn with a hand like JJ. If that could happen, the semi-bluff is much more dangerous.

The bottom line is, this is very often a scary flop for a preflop raiser, and the two opponents between you and the raiser will often have nothing, especially nothing that they will call two bets with. This bluff will work a significant percentage of the time in a live $15-$30 game (I had the Bellagio $15-$30 in my mind as a model).

Ed Miller also says, that you could win already on the flop. But he has also stated, that it is a loose game and he has many opponents.

I didn't say it was a "loose" game. I said your opponents play too many hands. "Play too many hands" means "loose preflop." I didn't say anything about calling down with very little after the flop. It may sound like a nitpick to you, but I was careful to choose the words I did. Maybe I should make a bigger deal about it in my explanation.

I also wouldn't call three opponents "many." Having the fourth opponent fold is pretty crucial also to this play. If he had called instead of folding, I think clearly the check-raise is no longer correct.

I'd be the first to admit that check-raising is a bit of a marginal play. Calling is reasonably close in value I think. But I do think you steal often enough to invest the extra bet(s).