Ed Miller is driving me crazy !
I do not know how to post links put look under cgtv.com and see the poker hand quiz.
I do not think, that the semibluff checkraise is +EV and i certainly do not think that it is more plus EV than just calling.
The main plan is to get heads up and fire again on the turn. You are putting one and a half BB in the pot to win 6 BB (odds 1:4) Odds against hitting in two cards is 1:5
You need your turn bluff to win around 5% of the time just to get an EV of zero and maybe it would have to work 10-15% off the time to get even with the EV of just calling.
One of the arguments for the checkraise is also to fold some of the middle cards that could back into a pair. I want to keep them in to pay off if I hit. It is not like hitting one of my pair outs is a dream come through.
Ed Miller also says, that you could win already on the flop. But he has also stated, that it is a loose game and he has many opponents.
I am thinking that this is fancy play syndrome. Could somebody convince me otherwise ?
Kim
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