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Old 07-02-2004, 07:58 AM
chief444 chief444 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 211
Default Re: Unsure about this fold

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I never really looked at it in the long run.... What I should realize is that this hand becomes profitable with an Ace falling on the river with a board as crappy as that, in the long run?

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What you need to look at is you only have two opponents. Even though many will call down with any ace some will not. I don't think the odds of one of your opponents holding one of 3 unseen aces are as high as you think here. I would guess that you will still be ahead on the river when the ace falls more than half of the time.

But the bigger issue is with 9.75 BB's in the pot, you only have to win this showdown 1 in 10.75 times (9.75 in pot + your 1BB call) or more to make calling the right decision. There is no way you won't win this showdown way more often then than, IMO.

Whether this river is a good time to value bet may be debatable so I don't have a huge issue with check/calling although I still think you should have bet the river. But folding against 2 opponents for 1 BB in a 9.75 BB pot with nothing scary except one overcard which came on the river should not have even crossed your mind.
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