Re: Playing AA in big multi-player pots
Followng up my own post...
According to a table in Ken Warren's "Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em" for hands that are played all the way to the river, AA is an 88% favorite against one opponent, 76% against two, 68% against three, and only 44% against four. It looks to me like I should definitely fold AA preflop when I will be risking all my chips against four or more opponents. With three or more it's still a bit risky, but I would probably play it.
So my 25% win rate (I originally stated it as a 75% loss rate) is indeed indicative of a bad streak, but not as far out of whack as I thought. Playing against four or more opponents, I am actually expected to lose. I don't want to risk all my chips on less than a 50-50 proposition. Heck, even 68% (three opponents) early in a tournament isn't that great. Maybe I should fold AA preflop whenever I know I will have at least three callers to the river. This actually happens a lot in the cheaper tourneys and satellites.
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