Re: Chess Championship
101 Victor Kramnik -0.5 Game -108
102 Peter Leko +0.5 Game -102
Here's what I will tell you (if you don't care to have any back story, I'll just say go to the bottom and there will be my pick).
Kramnik made his big debut playing for the Russian Olympiad team at Kasparov's insistence when he was 17, and backed it up with some ridiculously impressive score. Kasparov at all times had been quoted that Kramnik was his "likely successor", but Kramnik stumbled a few times (including a waxing at the hands of Shirov in a pseudo World Championship qualifying match). He eventually just got gifted the match against Kasparov and won it, in part due to Kasparov's insistence on trying to beat a drawish line of the Ruy Lopez.
Leko is also interesting; he broke the record for youngest Grandmaster ever and used that publicity to play with the "big boys" (the group of 6-10 super GMs at the very top) a few times, and was suitably crushed. After grinding it out for a few years, he made a breakthrough and moved up to that Super GM level himself.
Kramnik's results have been very uninspiring since winning this World Championship, while Leko has moved up to the super super GM level (which really includes only Kasparov, Kramnik, and Anand).
Both are very drawish players, very dull to watch many times. Both are known for being incredibly difficult to beat. As well, unless the rules of this match are unusual, the champion (Kramnik) will keep his title in the event of a tie. As such, I think there is incentive for Kramnik to tie.
Personally, I consider the match a toss up and would, presented these odds, put my money on Leko, no question for the following reasons:
1) Better value on Leko at 102
2) Likelihood of a tie and Kramnik's lack of incentive to win
3) Chess etiquette/tradition; say it enters the last game tied, and Leko needs the win to win the match; he goes all out and fails, getting a losing position. Chess "etiquette" will generally mean Kramnik offers a draw here anyways, and the match would end tied
Just my opinion.
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