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Old 06-06-2004, 02:09 PM
well well is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 25
Default Where did I go wrong?

I am doing something wrong, but I can't find out what.
Suppose we're looking at the bluff/no-fold strategy.

Player A will call a raise whenever he has something greater than z.
Player B will bluff with something smaller than x, and honestly raise with something over y and will call with the rest.

The bluff:
B bluffs with probability x, and when he does, he
wins 1 with probability z, and loses 2 with probability 1-z.
So we have x(3z-2)

The call:
B calls with probability y-z, and when he does, he
wins 1 with probability x+(y-x)/2, and loses 1 with probability (y-x)/2+(1-y).
So we have (y-x)(x+y-1)

The honest raise:
B does this with probability 1-y, and when he does, he
wins 1 with probability z when A folds, and when called (which happens with probability (1-z)) he will win 2 with probability
(y-z)/(1-z)+(1-y)/(1-z)/2 and lose 2 with probability (1-y)/(1-z)/2.
So here we have (1-y)(2y-z)

Summing these three will result in the EV-function for B which now is
EV(x,y,z)=-x^2-y^2-x-y-z+3xz+yz

[ QUOTE ]
I get that B should bet his best 1/6 hands, bluff his worst 1/18, and A should call with his best 1/3. [...] so the value of the game for B is 5/18.

[/ QUOTE ]

For this solution (x,y,z)=(1/18,5/6,2/3), which results in EV=13/162, or about .0802.

This is not even close to .278

Where did it all go wrong?

Thanks for helping.
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