[CrisBrown]

Hi pokerraja,

Here's an easy way to approximate win percentage at the table.

(1) Count the live outs.

For A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a flop of 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] his live outs are: any Ace (3), any 2 (4), any 5 (2), and any heart (8, as we already counted 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] with the dueces). That gives him 15 live outs.

(2) Multiply Outs x Cards to Come x 2.

He has 15 outs with two cards to come, thus 15 x 2 x 2 = 60%.

(3) Subtract Redraws from Step #2.

In this case, your only redraw against a made hand is to catch a Jack when he has caught a 5 (his trips fall to your full house) or an Ace (his two pair fall to your set). Any of his other outs leave you drawing dead. His Ace and 5 outs account for 5 x 2 x 2 = 20% of his 60% win percentage, and you will redraw 1/22nd (2 cards to hit from 44 remaining) of the time when he catches an Ace or 5.

So you subtract 1/22nd (your set redraws) of 20% (his set or two-pair draws), or about 1% from the result in Step #2, leaving him 60% - 1% = 59% win percentage.

While this method is not as exact as the poker calculators, the results will be close enough that you can't make a bad mistake at the table by following this method ... providing of course that you know (or have a good read on) the cards your opponent holds.

Hope this helps,

Cris