Re: Median Best Hand II: Simple formula
Ok, in line with what I was saying in the previous post, I started doing some figuring here.
Let's set the amount in the pot at 1 and solve for stack-size X (for any pot-size this will be the factor to multiply by)
f=average winning percent (weighted by frequency) of superior hands over the given hand
s=percentage of same hands (very small, but just to be exact--as we will see, s is almost completely irrelevant)
p=probability with the given number of players that your hand is best (note: p DEPENDS ON THE NUMBER OF PLAYERS IN THE HAND!!)
Given these numbers, you will win uncontested (since you have the best hand or a tie) on average p + .5s
And you will lose on average .5s + (1-p-s)(f-(1-f))X
So, break-even occurs when
p + .5s = .5s + (1-p-s)(2f-1)X
So, for break-even: X = p/[(1-p-s)(2f-1)]
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