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Old 05-27-2004, 09:51 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: Bluntly put - was this play of mine stupid?

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What are the odds of someone hitting a runner runner flush. Isn't it something like 46:1? That guy was extremely lucky.

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9/45 * 8/44 is 2/55, 26.5:1. The other player could win by catching another 7, too. It was only about 7:1 on the flop, and it is conceivable that the player thought an ace would be an out, or two non-clubs. I wouldn't play it that way, but I don't think it was terribly wrong. You have a lot more discretion about what to do with deep stacks when the pot is small if someone will misplay badly on later streets.

In limit, you may barely have time to express the level of strength of TPTK, so you may be able to bet the river for value. In no limit, routinely betting the pot or more on the flop, turn, and river with only TPTK is a huge leak. By the river, you are bluffing that you have a stronger hand.

If you pay off so much when a draw hits, you are making it right to chase, so don't complain when people do. Did a pot-sized bet on the turn protect TPTK from the 11-out (25%) draw? No, because it cost $1.50 to shoot for $8.50, the $4.50 pot after calling plus the extra $4 the hero would put in on the river. It would have been adequate protection if the hero had check-called the $2 river bet rather than check-raised.
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