Re: Wa this a fair split?
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Down to three 1st place pays 1600 2nd 450 and third 150.
Chip leader 95,000 2nd 63,000 3 42,000 approx.
They split it ... 1st 1,000 2nd 600 3rd 450.
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That is definitely unfair since the prizes don't add up to the remaining prize pool, $2200. $150 is missing.
By the independent chip model, the chip leader takes each position with probability (47.5%, 34.5%, 18.0%), equity $942. Second stack: (31.5%, 36.9%, 31.6%), equity $717. Third stack: (21.0%, 28.7%, 50.3%), equity $540.
The independent chip model is not perfect. However, I don't know what the differences are between the model and the actual final table dynamics. It may depend on the styles of the players in addition to their skill levels. An aggressive, marginal play (0 EV) may transfer equity from the other player involved in a hand to a player sitting out.
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