Re: Ill advised river bluff?
sfer,
For your bluff-raise to be +EV, you would have to win this pot approx. 20% of the time, which I think borders on fantasy. In general, checkcalling opponents in situations like this who hold a small flush card would tend to check the river but call a bet. Once he puts in his money, I'm putting him on at least the third nut flush, and given that it's Party, he's not folding a flush even if he considers the possibility that you just boated up with AA. Furthermore, I don't think that the small chance that he will bet and then call a raise with a worse hand like AT adds much value to your raise.
However, I would probably call this BB's river bet, as many players will routinely take a stab at the pot heads up when the fourth flush card hits the river. In this case, you only need to have the better hand 10% of the time for this action to be +EV.
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