Re: sanity check on all-in play which cost me 2nd
i am no statistician. Which is one of my great faults.
What i see is that in this hand you have a 80% chance at being a slight chip lead (or 20% chance of busting out). If you do knock out the shortstack later, you are (in crude chip terms) a 50-50 proposition to take 1st.
If you get away from this hand and 3rd busts out shortly afterwards, you are about 20-25% to take 1st. But you have made the extra dollars between 3rd and 2nd place at zero risk instead of 80% risk.
It's one of these EV things and i can't wrap my head around it; i am a total beginner.
From what i see, the relevant factors are:
1) are you better than chip lead (will a 50-50 split be favouring you)?
1b) if so, could you beat him at a 25-75 split?
2) what are the prizes? (50%, 30%, 20%?) these will factor in significantly.
If someone can do the math, i would be interested in the outcome. I am not criticising your play; i was merely trying to apply theory i may have misunderstood to it. Like i said, all comments help me greatly.
I probably would have done exactly the same as you in the heat of the moment; hell, at 80% it's gotta be pretty solid, and you were unlucky. But was the bad luck a bad EV play?
I'd guess not at a SnG but yes at a multi where the prize pool is bigger.
Maths people, rise up! your poker players need you!
Peter Harris
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