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Old 03-22-2004, 10:05 PM
The Dude The Dude is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2002
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Default Re: Fold an overpair to a single bet?

[ QUOTE ]
...but as they say, it's better to lose an extra bet instead of losing the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
They do say that, but they're wrong. When you call a bet, you don't lose the whole bet. You lose only a percentage of the bet depending on how likely you are to be beat. In the same way, when you fold the winner you don't lose the whole pot. You only lose a percentage of the pot.

Let me illustrate, and this will be very similar to the hand in question. Let's say you play a pot with JJ. According to how the action went down, your opponent can have ONLY AA-TT. The highest card on the board is a T. That means you lose to all 18 combinations of AA-QQ, you lose to the 3 combinations of TT, and you chop with the only other combination of JJ. So you have a 50% equity 1 time in 22, and a 0% equity the other 21 times. Let's say there's 9 BB in the pot and he bets into you. If you call, you don't lose a whole BB, since there is a chance you can chop. (You actually lose .75 BBs) And if you fold, you only give up your .23 BB equity in the pot.

So as you can see, the only thing that really matters is which play is +EV (or the least -EV). Don't get fooled into thinking "I would rather lose one bet than lose the whole pot." Calling is actually a much worse mistake when you are beat than folding is when you are good.

The only time the "rather lose one bet than the whole pot" concept applies is when you are playing in a tournament and your bankroll is therefore extremely limited. It is fallacious to try and apply this concept to regular ring games.
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