View Single Post
  #6  
Old 03-22-2004, 09:44 PM
The Dude The Dude is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: My new favorite people to hate: Angels fans.
Posts: 582
Default Re: Fold an overpair to a single bet?

On the turn is the correct place to lay down this hand. Your pre-flop and flop action is fine, and going on your read (that this is a solid player), you correctly saw that you were in trouble.

When he bets into you on the turn, you need to decide what you're going to do on the river before you act now. You need 22:1 odds to play for your set, and you're only getting about 11:1 immediate odds - not nearly enough to spike your set on the river. Assuming that you will have to call one more bet on the river and that BB will call as well, you're getting almost 7:1 odds to call down.

So ask yourself the question. Is my hand good 1 time in 8? The only possible hands he can have are AA - TT. I think you know JJ isn't going to be the case 1 in 8 (against an LAG, you might be okay to call, but not against a solid player betting into two opponents - one of whom is a fish who almost surely isn't going anywhere).

On the river, your fold becomes even easier. There is now no possible hand that you can reasonably put him on that you beat. Your hand would need to be good 1 in 14 times to make calling correct. I guess you could fantasize about him having AKs and putting in a pure bluff on the end, but you and I both know that can't be the case.

Save yourself a couple BBs, fold on the turn.
Reply With Quote