Re: Bad beat --- EV vs. Risk
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You can also factor in the Malmuth point that the chips he stands to lose are worth less than those you are risking, since he has a big stack. Whatever stage of the tournament you're in, this holds true in this case, since he has 5000 out of 27000 in play, i.e. a large proportion of the total.
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I agree. Another point is that the +175 I "gain" if he calls, come on top of +1675 I "already have", if he just folds. So, according to the same logic, by which the more chips I have the "less" they worth, these 175 actually worth less than their concrete value (comparing to the rest of my profit here), while my 20% risk of busting if he calls remain the same. This makes his call even less favorable for me.
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