Bad beat --- EV vs. Risk
After this little bad-beat, I had some thoughts about EV and risk, and got to some interesting conclusions.
The hand:
22$ 2-tables, blinds 25/50. I'm UTG w/1400, holding A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], I raise to 150. MP (5000) calls, BB (2200) calls too.
Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (pot: 475)
BB checks, I bet 400, MP calls, BB calls.
Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (pot: 1675)
BB checks, I push for 850, MP calls with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB folds.
River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
We usually say after such beats, things like "you want him to call you, this is great for you, etc.". While this is of course true in a sense, I figured that if you consider it strictly in EV vs. Risk terms, you *don't* want him to call here with his hand.
Calculation:
My CEV for him calling: (0.8*2525)-(0.2*850) = +1850, with 20% risk of busting .
My CEV for him folding: +1675, with 0% risk of busting .
So, I gain only 175 chips more, for this 20% risk of going bust.
I would much rather he *wouldn't* call me here.
All this may not have clear practical side, since I will push here every time. However, I certainly feel different now about "what I want my opponent to do".
Any thoughts?
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