Re: Strange hypothetical question
Expressing EV's in fraction of prize pool:
EV of folding, assuming equal players and no ties:
callers EV
9 .33
8 .27
7 .19
6 <~.15
...
1 .1
EV of calling, assuming equal players and that callers have random hands:
9 .311*.5+1/9*.5=.21
8 .347*.48+1/8*.2=.19
7 .388*.459+0=.18
6 .436*~.433~.19
...
1 .853*~.185~.16
So if folding will get you to the money, it is the better play. If it gets you to the bubble, it is close. Anything less, you have to call.
For an extension, here are the results if you are twice as good as an average player (a stack in your hands plays like a stack twice as big in an average player's hands). All other players are assumed to be average.
fold:
9 .336
8 .306
7 .263
6 <~.224
5 <~.202
...
1 ~.169
call:
9 .311*.5+1/9*.5=.21
8 .347*.489+1/8*.2=.195
7 .388*.478=.185
6 ~.436*.444=.193
5 ~.492*.419=.206
...
1 ~.853*.273=.232
Not that different, except this great player should fold if it gets her to bubble+1.
Me, I'd fold with 9,8,7 opps allin, probably not 6.
Also, these #'s optimize $/SnG, not $/hr, but the difference is marginal in all but the 9 allin case.
Craig
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