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Old 03-15-2004, 02:35 PM
BugsBunny BugsBunny is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 537
Default Re: Routine play or huge suck out?

I think the turn call is marginal at best. If you're sure she has top pair you have 5 outs, but all 5 outs may not be clean. If she's holding AT then your A outs are tainted, which means you're drawing to a 2 outer. So take away one out for the possibility of tainted A's. That leaves 4 outs. That means you need 10.5 to 1 to justify the call.

Even with all 5 outs being good that's 8.2 to 1 against, but you're only getting 7 to 1. I think I fold here if I'm pretty sure of my read of top pair. If it's possible that she has overcards instead then it becomes a different situation and the call becomes OK, since it's possible that you actually have the best hand at the moment. In that situation I might even c/r the turn.

Edit: I missed the fact that you had picked up the flush draw on the turn - that changes matters considerably, to put it mildly. The call on the turn becomes mandatory [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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