Well...
The answer is:
It depends on your WR (win rate) and SD (standard deviation).
Now, this is explained often on the probability forum but I'll try to do it quick.
let
M = money earned total
t = time played total
then:
M = WR*t +/- (2.58*SD*sqrt(t)) for a 95% confidence interval
and if we set the first derivative of subtraction version of this equation wrt time equal to zero we will have a minimum (trust me on this, it's a calculus thing):
0 = WR - 2.58*1/2*(SD/sqrt(t))
solving for t yields:
t = 1.6641 * (sd/wr)^2
now, we sub this back into the original equation (which I will repeat):
M = WR*t - 2.58*sd*sqrt(t)
M = 1.6641*wr*(sd/wr)^2 - 2.58*sd* sqrt(1.6641*(sd/wr)^2)
which simplifies down to:
M = -1.6641 * sd^2 / wr
So... after all that let's take a typical solid player's numbers and say he wins 1 bb / hr with a SD of 10 bb / hr then the most he can expect to be down is
M = -166.41 big bets
Sigh... after all that I realize I didn't answer your question but I'm sure the answer is in there somewhere. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] And this does show you something, assuming my math is right.
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