Another way of stating it...
I guess I've thought about this idea a different way after a few zzzz's....
If you are very confident that you have the best hand on the river, heads up (say, over 66.7% confident), then you should raise. Simple math.
Now, as Gaylord Focker points out, Puff the Magic Dragon isn't just about some boy's dragon.
He also points out that, since I threebet preflop, raising the river has very little value, since a worse hand can't call.
Okay, let's take what we know...
I PROBABLY have the best hand. (over 2/3 chance).
I'm last to act.
If I raise, no worse hand will CALL, and it's unlikely that a better hand (even exists!) will fold.
So, if I turn my cards face up and raise, the dude with AJ has a decision to make:
Fold, and say "yer right, you read me like a book, I've been had (a cliche' I never understood)".
Call, which would be utterly retarded, since he KNOWS what I have...he should raise a better hand or fold (or bluff) a worse hand.
Raise, to get me off a better hand.
I mean, I guess what I'm saying is if I'm that confident in my read, it seems silly to call on the river with the best hand. Raising will almost always yield the same result, but may induce another bluff raise.
The downside, other than the blatant display of arrogance, seems minimal....I'll try this play sometime and let you all know how it goes...
Josh
|