Re: 30-60 AA hand
She could make this play with a nine a jack, a draw or a big hand like a set. Like pipedream said, I figured if I did three bet, there was a good possiblity of getting 4 bet, and I was not folding my hand under any circumstances.
So if she does have me beat and I three bet, she will four bet me, and I will have to call her four bet, and a river bet. So If I'm wrong, I lose 5 bets total between the turn and the river. If she has a draw, and I just call the turn, she will bet into me again on the river so I get three bets total. But if she has a draw and I raise her, I still only get three bets because she obviously won't pay off on the end. Finally, she could have a made hand that is inferior to mine, in which case she will call my three bet and another bet on the river. So I get 4 bets when she holds a worse made hand.
It got me thinking about some of those checkraise situations where you are up agaist someone who is very possibly on a draw, but could also hold a big hand. Sometimes I think it's better not to three bet without a very big hand in these spots, because if it is a draw, they are probably going to bet the river anyway a lot of time, so you get the same amount of bets. But when you are behind, you can end up losing as many as five bets if you are reraised and then bet into on the river.
So supose a third of the time she has a draw, a third of the time she a hand she can call my three bet with and pay off the river with, and a third of the time she had a hand that has me beaten and it costs me five bets to showdown. I'm not a math guy, so whats the right play?
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