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I am very disappointed, because I have always at lower buyins had a smoothly decreasing function, but now I am getting less than 15% 1st's. The drop from 2nd to 1st sems to be statistically significant. I realize that a good player will usually reach headsup without a chip lead, but it seems that the level of shorthanded play at these is reasonably good: no one seems to make the horrendous mistake of folding too many hands, while many did at the $55 level.

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My thoughts on this are if you are routinely reaching the heads up stage of these SnGs with a slight chip disadvantage then your numbers seem about right. SInce the blinds will often be so big by the time you get heads up there is often little room to outplay your opponent even if you are the better player, so if hes not the type to fold too often(and you say they are less common at this level) then you would expect the chip leader to win more often than not.