[Buzz]

"I think you need to bet here when it's checked to you. Yes, you need to make the low draws and flush draws pay to beat you. You may also get to take a free card in case one of the draws gets there on the turn."

El Dukie - Before thinking this through, my natural inclination would also have been to bet here. However, after carefully thinking it over, I think I (or anyone) would do better by checking.

After a flop of Tc2c4h, ThTsJsJc is the current nuts - but it will not be the nuts on the river. Let me phrase that a bit differently - it is impossible for three tens to be the nuts on the river.

Sometimes three tens wins - but it is never the nuts. And when three tens does win, it generally does so in games where only two or three people have seen a flop of Tc2c4h. It is highly unlikely that three tens will hold up in a game where six people have seen that flop.

The nut low and/or nut flush draws will pay to continue. (It would be bizarre to think otherwise). You can make them pay, but to do so, you will also have to pay! Goes against the grain to give someone a free card. But when you hold ThTsJsJc, after a flop of Tc2c4h you’re getting a free card yourself! Your set of tens won’t hold up here any more than they’ll improve to quads. Something in between three tens and quad tens is over ninety percent to take the high half of this pot!

Players with nut draws will continue to a bet. (It would be naive to think otherwise). The question in my mind is how many players with non-nut draws will continue to a bet. I think most players with the second nut low and/or second nut flush draws will also continue - and even some players with third or fourth nut low and/or flush draws may continue. And someone with a set of fours or twos, or maybe with two pairs, will probably continue. Usually someone will have either the nut or second nut flush draw - but they won't both be out there. The same is true of lows, but the second nut low runs into the nut low more often than first and second nut flushes collide.

What it boils down to is you need enough of your opponents paying in order to justify a bet.

In a loose, passive pre-flop game, the tricky part is knowing how loose the game will be after the flop. Omaha-8 games that are loose before the flop are often tight after the flop. I don't think that's as true in Texas hold 'em.

If you bet and the hands that really don't fit well with this flop fold, then you have somewhat increased your chances of winning - but not by much. That's the rub - not by much.

Contrast the above with having a straight and betting to protect your hand. When you have a straight, you don’t want someone with a low set or two pair drawing out on you. You make them pay to draw. But three tens is not in the same category as a straight and does not merit the same treatment.

Just my opinion.

Buzz