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Old 01-21-2004, 10:54 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
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Default Re: Basic 08 situation I\'m unclear on: top trips

Fraubump - I don’t know if you’re thinking about this correctly or not. There seem several considerations.

With six players seeing the flop, at least one player likely has a good low draw and an ace high or king high flush draw is also likely. The other players have poor low draws, poor flush draws, and other hands with poor expectation, (like two pairs, a lower set, or worse).

I think you should assume your opponents with good draws will play if you bet or raise. (In a tight situation - which doesn't seem to be what you have here - you might be able to knock out 2nd-nut low and 2nd-nut flush draws). What any particular opponent with a poorer draw than nut (or maybe second nut) will do if there is a single bet depends on the particular opponent. Similarly, what an opponent with a poor draw will do if there is a double bet depends on the particular opponent. This is further complicated because what any particular individual does may depend in part on who made the bet and/or raise.

As the number of opponents who will play after this flop gets smaller, I don’t think the expectation of your hand increases much. As a result, I think you want as many opponents as possible. Think of your hand as being on a draw - and wanting customers if the board pairs.

You have to judge how each of your five opponents will react to any betting. If all five of them will continue regardless of the betting, I think you want to get as much money into the pot as possible. By that, in this case I mean knowing how each of your opponents will react to a bet, double bet, or raise after they have already called a single bet.

It’s often difficult to predict exactly how your opponents will react - and in the absence of knowing, I would tend to check and call with this hand after this flop. True, you’ve caught a piece of the flop and have top set, but the flush looms as does low. Assuming you do win for high, the odds are roughly even that you’ll be splitting with low. Thus this is is not the best flop for your hand.

Change the flop from Tc4h2c to Tc4h9s and I’d advocate jamming (betting and raising) with ThTsJsJc. As it is, I think checking (but calling) is in order.

I guess the foregoing discussion points out some of the problems with playing the hand - (although if I expected no raises from button or blinds and if there were already several limpers, I’d generally want to see the flop from the cut-off seat with JJTTs). But even when you catch a jack or a ten on the flop, when there are also two low cards on the flop plus two suited cards, you need enough opponents after the flop to make your draw pay off. (And of course where there is a higher card on the flop, you have to be worried about a higher set, or just top two pair). The chances of hitting a really nice flop, where you don’t have these various negative considerations are remote.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

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