Re: Newbe Opinion, I agree
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I agree with the Newbe, there is no need to gamble with 88 in this spot, ...
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Need? What has need got to do with it? You never NEED to gamble. You do it because doing so will win more than it will lose, in net EV. This spot is clearly one having +EV in terms of chips, and I believe it also has +EV in terms of money. If something more were known about the all-in raiser, or the other players at the table, this belief might turn out to be wrong. But, on the information given, I believe raising this all-in to have significant +EV in terms of chips and cash.
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since I think it's safe to assume your a coin flip at best with this hand in this position and you could be a big dog with this hand.
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I don't think that's a safe assumption at all. I've seen people make this move with quite a few hands where 88 is more than a coin flip. Ax with x being 8 or below is the most common of these. But Kx, Qx and even worse are not necessarily out of the question. Maybe YOU wouldn't make that raise with those hands, but there are plenty who would.
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isolating the raiser might not work if someone behind you has a big hand.
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Lots of things MIGHT not work. What's relevant is not what might happen, but the probabilities of all those might-happens when put together.
Avoiding risk is generally a good thing. But not to the point where you're giving up on significant +EV opportunities. I think this is such an opportunity. Not as good as somebody raising all-in into your AA, but a significant edge, nonetheless.
Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
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