Re: Two J9 hands -- Hand #1
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Flop: JT8r. I bet out, and 4 people called.
Turn: 8(JT8). I bet out, and 1 guy called. This guy was very loose, although my table image at this point was pretty itght.
River: a brick. What's your move?
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For now I'm avoiding reading the results and other posts.
I think specifying which of the four flop callers called on the turn would help with the analysis. For example, if the turn caller was the player who acted right after you on the flop it is more likely he has a draw OR a very strong hand and less likely he was chasing with middle pair (a middle pair should fear a raise behind) OR he had a good but not great hand (a good hand would tend to raise the flop with players acting after). OTOH, if the turn caller was last to act on the flop he would be likely to raise the flop with a draw in addition to his better or even huge made hands.
In the absence of the above information, I think you should check the river against typical players, especially since you have a tight image. You might lose a few calls with middle pairs but you will snap off more bluffs. A weaker jack will tend to bet anyway. Naturally, you save money when he was slowplaying a big hand since you can't easily lay down to a raise (this is where knowing his position helps).
Regards,
Rick
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