Results and Analysis
Thanks to everyone for your feedback.
I want to point first to Ignatius' reply. I think it is thorough and well written.
Normally I am a big fan of the 3xBB raise. Here, such a raise would be about 25% of my stack. Thus, I usually consider the all-in move to be inferior with this stack size. If 3x had been 1/3 of more of my stack, then I usually would go all-in instead.
However, in this exact situation, with two very aggressive players behind me, I think that raising 3x may be the worst choice of all. Even worse than a 2x raise (which I normally consider to be a significant mistake).
When I raise to 3x, it is very likely, probably more than 50% likely, that one of the two aggressive big stacks will reraise me all-in. And they will do it with other than just big hands. Thus, not only the obvious AA, KK, QQ hands will do it, but also hands like JTo, Q9s, and such. Given the range of hands I think they might reraise with, I'll be potstuck calling with my pair, getting over 5:3 on a call where I'm a small favorite most of the time (albeit a big dog some of the time).
I'd much rather steal the T11100 out there as opposed to playing a T150,000 pot as a 52:48 favorite. ;-)
I did consider folding, but as Ignatius and others have said, I figure to have the best hand right now quite often, and to win the blinds by an all-in pretty often. While these players were aggressive, they were raisers, not callers. So, I expect they will occasionally even lay down a bigger pair, such as 66, 77, 88, maybe even 99. Not necessarily, but at least some of the time. They will also lay down all of the two overcard hands that aren't quite near the top, such as JTs, KQo, ATs, and the like. I'm not quite sure where they would draw the line, but certainly I don't expect them to call with less than a pair, AJs, or KQs. That's not too many hands.
As for the BB who's kinda short-stacked, he's getting a half-decent price on his call, but not enough to call without a real hand also. He might call a bit looser than the big stacks, but not by much. And if he calls with two overcards, I'd rather he chose to fold, but it's not a disaster.
All-in is clearly a top choice. I think the only reasonable alternative is the limp-reraise. The reason I didn't pick this play is because I was afraid that if one of the big stacks did raise, they would raise too big for me to be able to reraise them off their hand. So, if I limp for T6000, they might reraise to T30,000, and my T75,000 all-in wouldn't be enough to get them off their decent but not great hand. However, if I had thought that any raise they made would've been in the T15-20,000 range, I might have picked this play. It's pretty tough to call off well over half your stack to a limp-reraise from a guy who you've never seen make that play, getting less than 2:1 on the call. I'd be practically certain the limp-reraiser had AA or KK at worst.
Result: I raised all-in. Button took a while, and finally raised all-in with AKs. No surprise, given his hand. I'd never fold that hand in that spot. You can give me credit for a real hand, but not AA or KK, and not only pairs either. Flop was TTQ. Not bad, makes me more of a favorite than I was preflop. J on the turn had me drawing thin, however. Oddly enough, the fact that he made a straight rather than two pair actually is good news, as it gives me 4 outs to resuck rather than just 2 outs.
River was a brick and I'm out 14th.
Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
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