Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do
[ QUOTE ]
How close would we be, with a standard dev of 15/100 and a 95% confidence level?
I'm asking because I don't know, not just to be a smartass, but I'm curious, because I'm hopefully going to be moving up limits soon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Edit: 99% confidence level too, if you don't mind.
[/ QUOTE ]
Even I know the answer!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Assuming that after 100,000 hands you have a winrate of 3 bb/100, and a SD of 15 bb/100, the .95 confidence level is:
[2.070307452, 3.929692548]
so, we can be almost an entire bb/100 off from our "true" winrate. (I think).
The .99 CI is: [1.778176881, 4.221823119]
And that's even bigger.
So basically, you can never really know your "true" winrate.
|