Re: Simple 77 HU hand.
Well, he's representing trips or a full house. That's pretty unambiguous. So it's a question of whether or not he's bluffing often enough for a call down to be worthwhile. From his stats, he's pretty aggressive, so calling down should at least be considered.
We're getting 3.5 to 1 on a call down. On that basis, he needs to be bluffing 20 to 25% of the time for a call down to be correct. But there are some other factors to consider.
To our benefit:
He'll sometimes not bet the river with a hand we beat.
To our detriment:
He's much more likely to improve than we are. If he has a two or a five, he may have an overcard on us as well. More importantly, there are two flush draws on the board, and that is what he'll have a lot of the time we are ahead of him on the turn. And he'll usually have one or two overcards on us if he does have a flush draw. Finally, he's aggressive enough that we can't count on him not fire off a bluff on the river.
All of this is a long way of saying implied odds are against us. To compensate, I'd want to feel he was bluffing or semibluffing at least 1 in 3 times here before I called him down. I don't think you can be that confident if your only read on him is his stat line. So I would fold. But with a better read, this could definitely be a call-down situation.
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