[Guruman]

this could devolve into semantics pretty quickly here, so I'll try to avoid that. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
The stop and go just screams...I like my hand...a little...please don't raise.

[/ QUOTE ] I don't know if it screams that per se, but I'll certainly concede that it implies this. regardless, it will still be difficult to raise with many hands that we beat, because the further implication is that we're showing down. I'm not trying to outsmart my opponent, I'm trying to rob him.

[ QUOTE ]

But the big thing here is a draw doesn't "sometimes" bet. A draw usually bets here if he's aggressive enough to raise the flop with it. Shorthanded, full or whatever...this turn doesn't get checked through as often as you seem to think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still disagree, but we'll just have to leave it at that.

[ QUOTE ]
you seem to just be assuming your opponent either has a good draw here or better hand and assuming that your opponent will never raise the turn if you're ahead. Neither is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really, and I'm sorry if I've made it sound that way. We really have very little evidence of villain's hand by the time the turn comes around if we just call there. He could easily have a ten, a flush draw, a hand like AQ, a king, a big pair, or even two pair.

I think the flop play is close between threebetting or calling, depending on how loose or aggressive the villain is. The flop play also sets up the turn play. If we call, leading locks in a bet when we're ahead, and gives us a way out if we're behind. I'm not saying its an auto bet/fold on the turn if we take that line, but I think its a decent option.

I also agree that we want to get to showdown often here.

I don't agree that we have to get to showdown 100% of the time here.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, your thoughts on win/losses and equity are off. You don't lose 2 BB when you call down. Your hand is good sometimes or you wouldn't call down.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't say that, and didn't mean to imply it. I thought I was clear when I said we lose 2 bb when we call with two outs. If I was confusing there, I aplogize.

[ QUOTE ]
You don't win 1 BB when your opponent is on a draw. You win a fraction of a BB and considering that your opponent will bet that draw when checked to quite a bit it's a small fraction.

[/ QUOTE ] I thought I properly qualified that with river contingencies as well, but again I aplogize if you took my comments to mean that you win 1 bb when he's drawing.

---------
for the most part, we're either way ahead of a ten, way behind a king, or somewhere in the middle with the flush draw.

I think the real question is, will the villain bluff raise a draw on the turn when we lead more often then he'll take the free card when we check?

The answer to that probably swings this one way or the other.