[Guruman]

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Bet/folding when he raises his draw again on the turn is a disaster.

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agreed, but it takes a serious lag/maniac to do this. I'll adjust here when I get that read. Our line suggests that we like our hand, and raising here with a hand that we beat is reckless, since we'll threebet our monsters and showdown our ok hands.

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Bet/calling a two outer is bigger mistake than offering a free card to a hand that has a lot of outs and will call a bet but will likely bet if checked to.

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this confuses me. If we're sure enough that we only have two outs, then we should check/fold, not check/call. the one place where the turn checking through could help us would never occur, because all bigger pairs have to bet here.

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Check/calling when your opponent will bet most of the time anyway is not a disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]It is when he's skimmed a poker book that explains the free card play. [ QUOTE ]
It's perfectly fine when your hand is ahead enough to see a showdown but less than the majority of the time. Besides that, the opponenet will bet this turn most of the time with whatever he/she raised the flop with...including worse hands, draws, or better hands.

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while its true that draw will sometimes bet here, we don't want to give them the option. Since our line already suggests that we've minimally paired up, any two spades paying attention will take a free look at the river. Most spades here don't raise. It's too expensive of a bluff, especially when they have odds to draw and can just pop us on the river when they hit.

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People get stupidly aggressive in these situations and I'd much much rather take a line that gets me to showdown with JJ than a line that includes a fold.

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I disagree. If we check/call the turn and river a few things happen:

1)it loses us 2bb to showdown when we're behind (usually hopelessly behind)
2)it wins us 1 bb when villain is both behind and willing to bluff the turn and fold the river UI
3)it wins us 0 bb when villain checks behind and fold the river UI.
3)it gives a spade draw exactly what he was looking for - a free card. If villain checks the turn and a spade falls on the river, what's your line?

by bet/folding here though, our line becomes more stable.

1)it loses us 1 bb when we're hopelessly behind
2)it wins us 1 bb when villain has a draw and does not improve on the river
3)it denies trailing hands the chance at a free card
4)it can win 2 or 3 bb when we improve, or when villain has a weaker pp.